Unless the Earth’s orbit is drastically altered by a massive and unpredictable cosmic event, it’s probably the case that Barack Obama will win a second term in 2012. A situation that I considered unthinkable just a few short months ago.
The reasons are obvious, but I’ll state them anyway.
- The Republican field is a circus, save for a few viable candidates that will be destroyed in the primaries.
- Fresh off a midterm high, the fringe believes that they have the numbers to run their ideal candidate.
- Obama got Bin Laden.
- Democrats can still safely run on the “we don’t need to cut anything” platform for a few years before the machine starts to break.
- Obama-care has not yet gone into effect so there is no real backlash against it yet.
But is this such a bad thing? Why should the GOP put their starters on the field just before the post-season? As I already stated, any viable candidate will be ripped and stained in the brutal washing machine of today’s right. The Tea Party groups have enough sway to spoil elections (cough… NY23, Nevada, Delaware…) but not enough to win elections.
No, it’s not worth the risk to damage the brand of good candidates like Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, or my personal favorite… Chris Christie. Barack Obama is a tough candidate to beat. He reinvented campaign finance and his “coolness” hasn’t suffered a bit from his governing follies.
And what do we have to fear from a second term? He has played all his cards. He has expended all of his political capital. And without congressional approval, he is all but a lame duck.
If the GOP focuses on small battles in 2012, it can expand its midterm gains in the House and cut the lead in the Senate. It’s time to stop playing checkers and start playing chess.
So if not now, then when? When can the GOP finally take the reins and start fixing this mess?
How about when Joe Biden is up! Dems have put all their eggs in one basket. There is no one on the horizon and good old Joe will feel owed his rightful spot. Only problem is, George W. Bush could beat Joe Biden.
And that is when the GOP should call up the bullpen and bring Christie in to close out the game. With the congressional gains of 2010 and 2012, combined with the executive pickup in 2016, we can finally start to correct the course. If we send him in with a broken arm and bloody nose, then we’re fucked. Again.